By Athula Senaratne and Kapila Premarathne
Never in the recent history has Sri Lanka
faced as many challenges due to disasters as the country did in the last
decade. It experienced major floods in May 2016, a prolonged drought in 2016-17
Maha season and once again flash floods this May. Before that, flash floods disrupted
the livelihoods of people in Anuradhapura in 2014. In 2013, fishermen lost lives
and assets due to torrential rains and stormy conditions. Major floods in 2011
affected nearly all the districts. In just over 12 years, the country faced
several other major disasters including, a tsunami, numerous landslides as well
as the collapse of the largest waste dump yard, all of which claimed many
lives, caused insurmountable damage to property and had long-lasting impacts on
the economy. For instance, the prolonged droughts in 2016 affected food
production and consumers were still experiencing higher retail prices in the
markets when they were hit by floods in Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces.
Except for the 2004 tsunami and the Meethotamulla tragedy, which have
geological and anthropogenic origins, the majority of other hazard events are
climate driven. Consecutive climate-related disasters in recent years indicate the
urgent need for disaster resilient coping mechanisms.
There is significant evidence to indicate that
climate change due to global warming is a factor responsible for the growing incidence
of disasters. While sudden catastrophic disasters, with tremendous economic
impacts, usually grab public attention more frequently, climate change is also likely
to generate slow onset impacts such as the gradual rise of air temperature,
alteration of established patterns of rainfall, rise in sea level and
inundation of low-lying coastal areas. Due to the gradual long-term nature of
such impacts, the losses and damage caused by them hardly capture public attention.
However, scientists caution that in future, the magnitude of losses and damages
due to such slow-onset impacts may even exceed the losses caused by the growing
incidence of catastrophic disasters.
Making an informed effort to face this reality
requires filling major gaps in the current system with respect to information,
policy, institutions, technology and resource mobilization. While actions in
all these areas are equally important, access to the right information is
fundamental to succeed in all other areas. It is no secret that there is a huge
gap in climate information. This gap needs to be bridged through appropriate
types of climate information products (CIPs) and Sri Lanka has to take
meaningful steps towards the development of reliable CIPs.
Climate Information Products (CIPs)
Information is an economic commodity with
scarce supply relative to demand that possess an economic value, and CIPs are
no exception. The value of climate information arises from its usefulness in avoiding
losses and damages caused by climate disasters/impacts and its prospects for making
use of favourable climate conditions to gain benefits. There are many types of CIPs,
such as short- to long-range weather forecasts, monthly to seasonal outlooks, long-term
climate projections, early warnings, information packs such as agro-climatic
calendars, and customized weather information for shipping and aviation. Anomalies caused by rising turbulence in the climatic
system all over the world have increased the demand for CIPs. As a result, various
types of CIPs that operate at global, regional and national levels are being
introduced by climate information providers.
The main
purpose of any CIP is to predict the future state of climatic parameters with a
specified period of lead time. Among many CIPs, short- to long-range
weather forecasts are the most demanded products. In addition, many countries are now
attempting to develop reliable seasonal outlooks that are especially useful for
highly weather dependent economic sectors such as agriculture and primary
industries. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has classified CIPs in
the following manner.
Information products
could be private or public and they involve supply chains that extend from producers
(information providers) to consumers (information users). Since a majority of CIPs are considered as
public information products, private producers have little incentives to supply
CIPs. As a result, a majority of CIP providers
are state, inter-governmental or international technical agencies. At the state
level, the main providers of CIPs are national meteorological services (NMS) represented
by national Meteorological Departments or Weather Bureaus (e.g., Department of
Meteorology in Sri Lanka). Examples for inter-governmental bodies are WMO and the
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPPC). In addition, there are
international technical agencies, sponsored by developed nations, such as the Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and the International
Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). Often, NMS in developing
countries have to depend on products from international information providers
for preparing national level CIPs due to their limited technical capacity.
With the spread of
information technology, new business models for supplying information products have
emerged. As a result, profit oriented private providers of CIPs that are based
on innovative web-based platforms have materialized. These platforms combine various business
models for multiple information products that range from subscribed customized
private weather reports to free supply of public weather information. These privately run CIP networks appear to be
getting more and more popular with the spread of smart phones and tablet PCs. With
ongoing advancements in ICT in areas such as internet of things (IOT), big
data, artificial intelligence and drones revolution, prospects for private
providers of CIPs are expected to increase tremendously in the future.
Climate Information Gap in Sri Lanka
The dearth of reliable
CIPs to cater to growing demands from various stakeholders is a challenge faced
by many developing countries, including Sri Lanka. The
Department of Meteorology (DM) is the national climate information provider in
Sri Lanka and is the national focal point for the WMO and IPCC. At present, the
DM offers a limited portfolio of CIPs to the general public as well as
stakeholders from weather dependent economic sectors, such as agriculture,
energy, fishery, shipping, aviation and insurance which are communicated
through public media and its website. These CIPs include routine daily weather
forecasts, monthly and seasonal outlooks, sea-area and city forecasts,
forecasts for aviation and shipping, warnings and advisories on bad weather
situations due to events such as cyclones, heavy rains, lightning and high
wind. It has also started offering three day and 10 day model forecasts and making
continuous attempts to develop long-term climate projections through
downscaling of global models. Despite the efforts of the DM to improve the
availability of CIPs in the country, significant gaps persist. Broadly, they
can be categorized into three major types, namely; supply gaps, credibility
gaps and communication gaps.
With the gradual
unfolding of climate change impacts, the demand for CIPs is rising. Compared
with the growing demand, the current supply of CIPs is limited in Sri Lanka. This is particularly felt in more weather
dependent sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, water resources management,
energy planning, and disaster risk management. Even the available CIPs appear
to have credibility gaps due to poor compatibility and quality. Poor compatibility implies a gap between coverage of the forecast and users’
needs of information. The quality of forecasts is determined by accuracy and
reliability of predictions. Low levels
of compatibility and quality reduce the confidence of users about the CIPs,
thereby resulting in a credibility gap. Finally, it seems that existing CIPs
are not properly communicated. A communication gap occurs due to problems in
format and content of messages, low access by users due to lack of targeting,
and poor selection of media for dissemination. These gaps in climate
information have led to frequent criticisms directed at the DM, both by
politicians and the general public.
Bridging Climate Information Gaps
Bridging climate information gaps in Sri Lanka is an essential precondition
for facing the challenges caused by climate change. The limited supply
of information products, low confidence of users on existing products, and poor
communication contribute to climate information gaps in Sri Lanka. One major reason for information gaps is the capacity
limitations of the DM and other relevant stakeholder agencies. Developing
quality CIPs requires state-of-the-art technical facilities and a high level of
expertise and skills. The existing technical facilities and the limited
professional manpower at the DM, as well as at other relevant agencies, are not
adequate to meet the challenge. Hence, necessary policy and management measures
should be taken to improve the situation. This involves making investment
on upgrading technical facilities, recruitment of additional staff, building
skills of staff through training, arranging technical assistance from
international agencies for developing sophisticated forecast information
products, networking operationally with global/regional/national agencies, and
building research and development capacity. The range and quality of CIPs should
be upgraded through continuous assessment of user information needs, validating
and monitoring of products with the participation of users, and exploring effective
communication channels for targeting specific user groups.
Besides improving the
technical capacity of the DM to produce reliable CIPs, awareness and capacity
of other stakeholders in areas such as agriculture, fisheries, water, energy
and disaster management should also be raised to facilitate the effective use
and communication of information at times of need. The capacity of universities
to offer courses on relevant technical areas have to be strengthened and the
level of awareness among media on effective communication of climate
information should be increased. All
these interventions require significant foresight and determination for action
from policy makers and continuous vigilance from the side of the general
public. Overall, bridging the current climate information gap in the country,
calls for a consolidated effort by all relevant stakeholders.
(Athula Senaratne is a Research Fellow and
Kapila Premarathne is a Project Officer at the Institute of Policy Studies of
Sri Lanka (IPS).
Labels: Climate Change,
Climate Information, Disaster
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