For Whom the Mobile Phones Ring? Future of Climate Information Delivery in Sri Lanka

Nimesha Dissanayaka and Manoj Thibbotuwawa

Most people use weather forecasts to plan their daily activities. However, for those whose livelihoods depend on variations in weather, this information becomes a lifeline. Farmers, as a community, are highly sensitive to weather forecasts, as their agronomic decisions revolve around daily temperatures, rainfall patterns, and wind speeds. Farmers used to be able to observe cloud patterns, behaviour of birds and animals, wind direction, and other natural occurrences to make accurate predictions about the weather. Before technology took over, farmers’ wealth of experience in agronomy helped them make spot-on weather forecasts.

Index-based Insurance and Climate Information in Sri Lanka: Prospects for Community-based Rainfall Stations

Kanchana Wickramasinghe

Climate insurance for farmers has been a hot topic recently owing to recurring floods and droughts in agricultural districts in Sri Lanka. In these instances, interventions are necessary to help farmers adapt to weather and climate changes, using effective risk management strategies. Global experience has shown that insurance serves as an important risk management tool in this regard. However, an IPS study indicated that, in Sri Lanka, climate insurance is not yet considered a popular risk management strategy adopted by farmers due to issues in supply and demand. 

Supply-side issues are related to the indemnity-based crop insurance products offered in Sri Lanka. The study proposed to shift to index-based insurance, to eliminate problems of traditional indemnity-based crop insurance. It further identified the lack of climate data as a main barrier in implementing index-based insurance in Sri Lanka.  

Climate Information Needs of Farmers: What is in Demand?

Anita Perera and Geethika Maddumage

As a developing country that still depends heavily on agriculture for rural livelihoods, Sri Lanka faces many challenges due to climatic changes. Without reliable climate-related information, farmers are unable to make accurate farming decisions. In the past, farmers were able to rely on their traditional knowledge to make precise weather predictions. They were well-versed on local weather patterns and the specific climatic requirements for crops, thanks to long-term experience and knowledge passed through generations. 

Sri Lankan Farmers’ Traditional Knowledge and Climate Change Predictions

Dilani Hirimuthugodage

“If eagles and grey hornbills are flying above their normal height in the sky, it signals that rain is expected soon; if seagulls are flying close to the ground, it suggests that there will be heavy rainfall. However, these patterns have now changed because of the development activities in the Lunugamwehera Tank, Bundala Salt Corporation, etc.” said Mr. Bandara, a 60 year old paddy farmer from Bundala, in Hambantota District. He attended the Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) programme of a research study conducted by the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS), and other partner institutes.

Climate Smart Agriculture: Key to Ensuring Food Security and Rural Livelihood in Sri Lanka

By Manoj Thibbotuwawa

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s report on "Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" says; “Climate change without adaptation could potentially affect the farm livelihood and all aspects of food security including food access, utilization, and price stability.”

Yield Vs. Cost: The Difference between Organic and Inorganic Farming in Sri Lanka

By Chatura Rodrigo

Research Economist, IPS

Chemical based paddy farming is geared towards achieving higher yields with new improved rice varieties and new farming techniques. Therefore, the popular argument against the adoption of organic paddy farming is that it does not generate enough yields and that might constrain the supply of rice for Sri Lankans. However, a majority of organic farmers defend their efforts guaranteeing same yields as chemical based paddy farmers. (Organic farming also provides additional benefits, mainly Ecosystem Goods and Services). If there is no difference in the yield, the question raises as to “why farmers do not adopt organic farming?”. Perhaps, it may be the case that it is not about the yield that farmers are concerned, but about the cost that they incur in the production process.

Reducing Fertilizer Dependency in Paddy Farming in Sri Lanka: Should We Change Our Approach?

By Chatura Rodrigo
Research Economist, IPS

Sri Lanka’s paddy farming solely depended on organic fertilizer many years ago; but the use of chemical fertilizer is now on the rise, and has become a much discussed topic. Many argue that farmers use excessive chemical fertilizer, well above the recommended levels, as they receive the products at considerably subsidized rates. However, the literature highlights that providing fertilizer subsidy for paddy farming proves to be less efficient in increasing production. Researchers suggest that policy makers should focus on other input subsidies such as reduced prices on seed paddy, financial assistance towards mechanization, and output subsidies such as guaranteed farm gate prices for paddy. Paddy farmers are currently given a guaranteed farm gate price.  

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For the past three years, research at the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) argued that the fertilizer subsidy should be gradually removed from paddy farming; suggesting that the subsidy be removed from the non-commercial paddy farming areas in the short run and from the commercial areas in the long run. Meanwhile, the 2016 Budget came with a surprise proposal to completely remove the fertilizer subsidy and introduce a coupon system. Now, a paddy farmer is entitled to a maximum of LKR 25,000 per hectare of paddy land in the form of a voucher or coupon. This allows the farmer to buy fertilizer from private markets at a competitive rate, permitting private markets to develop. Whilst the argument made was for a smooth transition, the sudden removal of the subsidy raises more questions. Some burning questions are: Can poor farmers face competitive market prices of fertilizer? Would the inability to purchase large quantities of fertilizer drive the farmers to use more organic fertilizer? Is organic fertilizer ready to take on the role of a substitute? While trying to answer these questions, this article explores additional measures to reduce fertilizer dependence in paddy farming.

The Impact of Price on the Organic Rice Farming Sector in Sri Lanka

By Chatura Rodrigo
Research Economist, IPS 

Developing the organic rice farming sector and ensuring that it makes a significant contribution towards the rice consumption in Sri Lanka is a necessity today. However, for the past decade, the spread of organic rice production in the country was limited to marginalized lands. Many farmers cultivate for their own consumption; while only a portion of rice is sent to urban markets. This too targets a selected segment of consumers, mostly the upper middle income and high income groups. While many argue that the slow growth in the sector is due to the difficulties in production, one cannot ignore that the high price of organic rice has a possible impact on the reduction in the demand for consumption.

CLIMATEnet Policy Discussion Forum

Linking Expert Knowledge to Generate Policy Insights on Climate Change Adaptation Under Uncertainty

Introduction

Climate change is a global phenomenon which is fast becoming an inevitable reality. Each country has to develop sound policies, strategies and practices to combat impacts of climate change. Sri Lanka is not an exception. While developed countries are more concerned about mitigation of climate change through investments on low carbon technologies, developing nations are compelled to focus on adaptation measures. Global projections indicate developing countries are likely to undergo more hardships due to impacts of climate change.

Climate change impacts are complex and spread over a broad spectrum of economic sectors and geographical areas.  Among the more vulnerable sectors in Sri Lanka are agriculture, fisheries, coast conservation, irrigation, health, disaster management, power and energy and industry.  The key strategy to face the impacts of climate change is adaptation. Adaptation refers to adjustments, which are in response to actual or expected variability or change in climate in order to moderate and cope with harmful impacts or to take advantage of opportunities. Human society in general is adaptive to changing conditions. Nevertheless, wide-ranging impacts spread over vast geographical areas at relatively rapid pace call for the necessity of planned efforts of adaptation supported by well-designed policies. 

Policy Challenges in Climate Adaptation in Sri Lanka: Identifying Major Gaps

Athula Senaratne
Research Fellow, IPS 

Being a tropical island located in a disaster prone region, Sri Lanka is vulnerable to impacts of climate change. The 2004 tsunami has indicated that a large extent of densely populated low lying coastal areas is vulnerable to a future rise in the sea level. The country has frequently been experiencing disaster prone weather extremes such as droughts, floods and cyclones.  Predictions by global studies on climate change suggest that both intensity and frequency of such extreme events are likely to increase in the future. As a significant population of the country is directly dependent on weather-reliant livelihoods such as agriculture and fisheries, adverse changes in weather patterns could lead to chaotic conditions. Among the community groups that are more vulnerable to climate change impacts are residents in coastal areas, rain-fed farmers in the dry zone, fishing community, workers in the estate sector and small-scale producers of export crops.

Climate change is a complex challenge and well-designed policies for adaptation are necessary to face the impacts of it.  Adaptation is a dynamic process of adjustment in response to changing conditions of climate. A pragmatic approach towards adaptation policy has to fulfil a few essential steps. They are: identify and evaluate likely impacts of climate change; assess vulnerability/adaptive capacity of key stakeholders; identify major gaps that affect effective actions against impacts; and, appraise alternative strategies for overcoming gaps so that the country can adapt to impacts in a successful manner.

Towards a Green Economy in Sri Lanka: A Forestry Perspective

By Nimal Gunatilleke
Professor at University of Peradeniya

Sri Lanka, having been elevated to a ‘Middle Income Emerging Market’ by the International Monetary Fund in 2010, is steadfastly striving further to enjoy even a higher level of growth,  and human well-being.  However, at this crucial juncture in its accelerated development drive, the economic growth of Sri Lanka  need to be steered along an economically as well as ecologically sustainable  path incorporating the ideals of  Green Economy advocated by the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio + 20, 2012).  At this global summit, the member states including Sri Lanka decided to launch a process to build a green economy to achieve sustainable development goals and converge with the post-2015 development agenda (http://www.uncsd2012.org).  

UNEP defines a green economy as one that is low-carbon, resource efficient, and socially inclusive which would result in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. This means that in a green economy, growth and employment are driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and minimize the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The strategic objective in transition to a green economy is therefore, to facilitate economic growth and investment while at the same time taking measures to enhance environmental quality and social inclusiveness leading to sustainable development. According to an IMF  report in 2006, the world economy has quadrupled over the last quarter century, but at the same time on the flip side, 60 per cent of the world’s major ecosystem goods and services that underpin livelihoods have been degraded or used unsustainably. (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). 

Is it the time to go back to where we came from: Addressing the debate Organic Vs Inorganic rice farming through a new research approach?

By Chatura Rodrigo
IPS Researcher 

Achieving food security continues to be a challenge for Sri Lanka. Increasing population, changes in lifestyles, changes in food preferences and emerging middle income class demand more production.  Therefore, governments need to make sure they are self-sufficient in their staple food, in our case, it is rice 1. Records suggest that Sri Lanka has achieved self-sufficiency in rice, which as a country we have to be very proud of 2. However, there is a burning question that we need to ask from ourselves, “Is chemical fertilizer and pesticide based intensive agriculture a viable option for the future?” Much is being discussed and debated on the topic of the harmful effects of chemical fertilizer and pesticide based intensive agriculture, especially issues related to health and environment.  Some argue that Sri Lanka should look into the possibility of having more organic rice farming and some argue that it might not be viable 3. Therefore, there is a clear ambiguity, among the scholars and policy makers in establishing whether a shift into organic rice framing is a viable option or not. Existing research is not strong enough to make an informed policy decision, and hence there lies a research opportunity as well as a responsibility to all the environmental and agriculture economists of the country.

Use of Traditional Paddy Cultivation as a Means of Climate Change Adaptation in Sri Lanka

By Chatura Rodrigo
IPS Researcher

Paddy occupies approximately 37 per cent (0.77 million ha) of the cultivated land area of Sri Lanka.     It is cultivated during two major seasons; Yala and Maha, where a majority is cultivated during the latter. Close to 1.8 million farm families are dependent on paddy farming throughout the country. The demand for paddy in Sri Lanka will increase at a rate of 1.1 per cent per year, which requires production also to increase at a rate of 2.9 per cent per year. Therefore not only is paddy the staple food of the country, but its cultivation is the livelihood of a significant portion of people (DSC, 2013). 

The ‘green revolution’ of the early 1960s, supported by agricultural policies such as fertilizer subsidies, placed Sri Lanka on the fast track to becoming a production economy. With subsidized fertilizer and the establishment of irrigation schemes, farmers were given the motivation to be more production oriented. These heavy production agricultural methods in the paddy sector were supported by the new and improved high yielding varieties. Even though these new improved paddy varieties were short termed and high yielding, they were chemical fertilizer and labour intensive and posed a negative externality to the environment (Wiggins and Brooks, 2010). Most importantly, these new improved production incentive paddy varieties and agricultural practices were not resilient towards climate change impacts.

Climate Change Models Shift Boundaries of Agro-Ecological Zones in Sri Lanka

By Muththuwatta, L.P. and Liyanage, P.K.N.C.

Climate change models for Sri Lanka suggest that profound and complex changes in rainfall patterns are becoming a reality.. It’s never too early to consider what this means and how it could impact agriculture and therefore all of us. 

The news that climate change will affect Sri Lanka’s weather will surprise very few these days. However, a recent study1 projecting rainfall distribution patterns in Sri Lanka for 2050 warns that climatic zones could shift. It also suggests that the intensity of rainfall will vary more greatly than observed over recent times. The findings reported by Muththuwatta and Liyanage, have important implications for agriculture – from farmers to policymakers.

With global temperatures warming over the past century, Sri Lanka has already displayed its share of signs of climate change. The resulting extreme weather events have even now affected agricultural production. Concerns for water and food security for a projected global population of 9.6 billion in 2050 are high. In its 2007 assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that the nature of changes will vary across different geographical regions and development statuses. It added that the way regions respond and adapt will also affect climate change.

The Need for Climate Change Resilience in Urban Infrastructure: A Closer Look at Sri Lanka

By Chatura Rodrigo
IPS Reseracher 

Introduction

  

Rapid urbanization has aggravated the deficiencies of basic services and infrastructure in the developing world, particularly in the Asia and Pacific. In many of these countries, evolving infrastructure can be particularly climate-sensitive and therefore highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Because climate-related events cut across socio-economic sectors and administrative jurisdictions, they can jeopardize development objectives in distant places. Public infrastructure tends to be multifunctional in nature and serves a range of diverse stakeholders spread over a wide geographic area; directly or indirectly providing critical services to the areas they cover. Interruptions in services can cause negative economic impacts over a large territory. The lack of reliable services impedes a country’s ability to pursue development goals. For this reason, it is vital that development strategies incorporate efforts to increase the climate resilience of infrastructure, especially taking into consideration the risks of climate change.

Multiple Actors: The Challenge of Building Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Sri Lanka

By Centre for Poverty Analysis[1]
Introduction

Climate change is a global phenomenon that is predicted to disproportionately impact low and middle income nations who have less economic stability and greater levels of poverty. Poor communities within these societies who are least able to withstand external shocks will face the brunt of the impact. They will need support from the state and non-state actors to be better prepared, protected and enabled to recover from these shocks. This situation challenges developing countries to meet economic and social development agendas while reducing or minimizing the impact on the natural environment. It is challenging developing countries to adopt sustainable pathways to development that try to achieve a sustainable balance between human and environmental wellbeing. In Sri Lanka, efforts to put in place more sustainable practices and to address climate change are taking shape. Various interventions are advocated and are being tested from policy to practice, involving a range of stakeholders or “actors”. This essay examines how different levels of actors attempt to address climate change. It uses an actor-based approach to analyze what enables or impedes adaptation for different levels of actors and draws from a study carried out within the context of agriculture, fisheries, and tourism livelihoods in coastal areas of Sri Lanka.

Sri Lankan Perspective on Clean Development Mechanism: Approach Towards Climate Change Mitigation

By Chatura Rodrigo

 IPS Researcher 

Background: Introducing the CDM

As defined by Article 12 in the Kyoto Protocol under the United Nation Frameworks Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) are one of three flexible mechanisms established with the purpose of assisting Annex I countries of the UNFCC to archive their committed amount of emission reduction in cost effective ways.  It also allows contributions for the sustainable development of Non Annex I countries such as Sri Lanka.

The CDM is one of the Protocol's "project-based" mechanisms; in that the CDM is designed to promote projects that reduce emissions. The CDM is based on the idea of emission reduction "production". These reductions are "produced" and then subtracted against a hypothetical "baseline" of emissions. The emissions baselines are the emissions that are predicted to occur in the absence of a particular CDM project. CDM projects are "credited" against this baseline, in the sense that developing countries gain credit for producing these emission cuts.

Since 2001, the CDM projects have issued 1 billion Certified Emission Reduction (CER) units. Approximately, 63% of all CERs had been issued for projects based on destroying either Hydrofluorocarbons (42%) or Nitrous Oxide (21%), which is a conventional way of creating CERs.  However, at the moment, the European Commission is proposing a full ban on CER’s from industrial gas projects. More than 1,000 CDM projects have qualified for carbon credits.  Most of these are large-scale activities in the energy sector; in the waste sector, subsidized technologies include landfill gas, incineration, and cement kilns.  India and China are the biggest takers, with a combined share of more than 50% of the projects.  With some 3000 more projects awaiting registration, the CDM expects to generate nearly 3 billion CERs by 2012. Trade in CERs currently runs to an estimated US$ 10 bn a year.  This has fueled a gigantic, global carbon trading market that is raking in huge profits for financing companies, consulting firms, brokers, and other market players. Currently there are five exchanges trading in carbon allowances: the European Climate Exchange, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, PowerNext, Commodity Exchange Bratislava, and the European Energy Exchange.