Weather Related Disasters in Sri Lanka: Most Vulnerable and Where to Find Them

Wimal Nanayakkara

Every year, natural disasters wreak havoc on the lives of people around the world. In the recent past, Sri Lanka too has experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Floods and droughts are the most common weather-related disasters, affecting tens of thousands of people in the country. Sri Lanka is also prone to hazards such as landslides, storms, coastal erosion, and lightning strikes. The impact of natural disasters could have severe consequences, and according to the report “Impact of Disasters in Sri Lanka, 2016”, the poorest and the economically vulnerable are those most at risk. The frequency and aftermath of such disasters have a negative impact on the economy. This blog, based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016, conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), focuses on the socioeconomic backgrounds of those who have been affected by such weather-related natural disasters during 2016.

The Poorest and Economically Vulnerable are Mostly Affected

Of the 20.7 million population in Sri Lanka, as many as 1.4 million people (or 6.5 per cent), were affected by at least one weather-related natural disaster in 2016. To make matters worse, it is those belonging to the lower income levels who are most severely affected (Figure 1).

Figure 1 – Number of Persons Affected by Floods, Droughts, Landslides or Storms and Share of Persons Affected (out of the total affected by at least one disaster) by Per Capita Household Expenditure Deciles – 2016

Floods affected the most number of people in 2016 - 735,000 persons or 54.3 per cent of the total number of persons affected. This was followed by droughts that affected 35.8 per cent, landslides that affected 6.1 per cent, and storms that affected 3.8 per cent. Out of the 1.4 million persons affected, 3.7 per cent were considered poor, according to the national poverty line (NPL). Furthermore, 10.2 per cent were in moderate poverty, according to the global poverty line of $3.20 a day (2011 PPP). There are around one million persons who live just above the national poverty line, and they could easily slip into poverty when affected by natural disasters. Even those who are in middle income levels could get pushed down to lower income levels, as natural disasters cause people to lose their livelihoods. As such, it is important to take the above mentioned nuances into consideration to ascertain who are mostly affected by natural disasters. 

The per capita household expenditure deciles (PCHHEDs) show a much clearer picture of how the weather related disasters affect the poor more than the rich. Figure 1 illustrates that 52.3 per cent of those affected due to weather related disasters are in the bottom four deciles (or poorest 40 percent of households). The percentages of persons affected in the richer groups decline after the seventh decile and reached 4.0 per cent in the richest decile. The numbers affected are higher in the bottom three deciles. The reason for this trend could be that the families who are affected by weather-related hazards slip into lower income levels due to the loss of their livelihoods, the destruction of their limited assets, the lack of resources to recover from such blows, etc. These vulnerable groups need help to become resilient.

Figure 2 - Persons Affected by Weather Related Disasters by Socioeconomic Group (SEG): Percentage within Each SEG and Share under Each SEG out of the Total Affected

Figure 2 shows that people living in households headed by skilled agricultural, forestry, and fisheries workers are the most severely affected by natural disasters. Out of the total number of persons affected, almost one fifth belong to this socioeconomic group (SEG). They are affected by both droughts and floods, but a majority suffer due to droughts. More than two-thirds of the affected persons are living in households headed by the first five SEGs in Figure 2. It is also observed that more than a quarter engages in agriculture related activities. As the agricultural sector is affected by both floods and droughts, resulting in crop losses and reduction in yields, it drives up the prices of food. This then has a negative impact not only on those engaged in agriculture, but also on the poorer groups, leading to food insecurity among low income households.

Mostly Affected Districts

It is important to identify the districts which have been mostly affected, in order to develop suitable strategies to minimise the effects of natural disasters.

Figure 3-Number of Persons living in Households Affected by Weather Related Hazards and Districts-2016

People living in Ampara, Puttalam, Kurunagala, Colombo, Gampaha, and Batticaloa districts account for more than 60 per cent of those affected by natural disasters (Figure 3). Ampara is the worst off, battered by both droughts (106,000 persons affected) and floods (74,000 persons affected). Meanwhile, Kurunagala district has the largest population affected by droughts (114,400 persons). In Colombo, people are threatened almost entirely by floods. Unplanned urban developments can increase the effects due to flooding in lower elevations closer to the rivers, affecting mainly low income families who are living in such high risk areas, like in the case of Colombo district.

Way Forward

The available data on natural disasters, covering a long period of time, need to be analysed in depth.  These findings should be used by city and town planners, as well as rural area planners, both at the national and the regional levels, when developing effective strategies to minimise the social and economic impacts of natural disasters. The sharing of available data/information and the proper coordination and collaboration between government agencies are absolutely essential in this regard.

The following recommendations should also be implemented.

1. Developing a comprehensive database and up to date website giving information on high risk areas, trends in natural disasters, the number of persons affected, time periods during which the disaster occurred by regions, etc.
2. Mapping areas frequently affected by floods, droughts, landslides, storms etc., so that people can avoid the high risk areas.
3. Making early warning systems more effective and efficient, so that the damage and loss of life is minimised. 
4. Using the available information, especially past trends, to control and reduce the adverse effects of natural disasters and to develop coping strategies. 
5. Establishing an effective system to rehabilitate the affected people, especially the poorer and economically vulnerable groups, to recover their assets and to help them to get on track to proceed with their livelihoods.