Weather Related Disasters in Sri Lanka: Most Vulnerable and Where to Find Them

Wimal Nanayakkara

Every year, natural disasters wreak havoc on the lives of people around the world. In the recent past, Sri Lanka too has experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Floods and droughts are the most common weather-related disasters, affecting tens of thousands of people in the country. Sri Lanka is also prone to hazards such as landslides, storms, coastal erosion, and lightning strikes. The impact of natural disasters could have severe consequences, and according to the report “Impact of Disasters in Sri Lanka, 2016”, the poorest and the economically vulnerable are those most at risk. The frequency and aftermath of such disasters have a negative impact on the economy. This blog, based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016, conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), focuses on the socioeconomic backgrounds of those who have been affected by such weather-related natural disasters during 2016.

Uncertainties and Scientific and Technological Challenges in Weather and Climate Forecasting

Shiromani Jayawardena

Deputy Director (Research and Climate Change), Department of Meteorology

Over the last few decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have been increasing, especially due to global warming caused by human activities. According to a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2012, changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes can increase people’s vulnerability to natural disasters and become a major threat to global economies. Weather forecasts, ranging from timescales of few hours to entire seasons, can reduce susceptibility to weather variations and climate-related disasters, improve food security and health outcomes, and enhance water resource management. However, a major challenge is predicting future weather patterns in a rapidly changing climate. The future is intrinsically uncertain. Further, dynamic physical processes of atmosphere and its interactions with surrounding systems (e.g. land, ocean, and ice surfaces) make forecasting even more difficult.

Developing Climate Information Products (CIPs) for Farmers: Demand-side Challenges and Necessity for an Integrated Approach

Chandrika Kularathna and Lalith Rajapaksha

Janathakshan Ltd. 

Agriculture is a key sector that stands to benefit from well-designed climate information products (CIPs). Prior knowledge about variations of weather parameters can assist in planning and making operational decisions, reducing risks, and maximising returns, while facilitating the process of adapting to climate change. Therefore, CIPs can make a significant contribution to ensure Sri Lanka’s food security in the long run, under conditions of rising climatic uncertainty.  

However, many developing countries, including Sri Lanka, still lag behind in producing and disseminating accurate and reliable CIPs for farmers. As a result, farmers still rely on their traditional knowledge when planning farming activities and making agronomic decisions. They make risky decisions, based on their own expectations about weather patterns such as rainfall. In this context, it is concerning that the reliability of farmers’ traditional knowledge has declined due to unexpected changes in local climate patterns. Thus, farmers struggle to make accurate agronomic decisions. This points to the urgent need to develop and disseminate reliable and timely CIPs to farmers and integrate scientific climate information systems to their decision making processes.

For Whom the Mobile Phones Ring? Future of Climate Information Delivery in Sri Lanka

Nimesha Dissanayaka and Manoj Thibbotuwawa

Most people use weather forecasts to plan their daily activities. However, for those whose livelihoods depend on variations in weather, this information becomes a lifeline. Farmers, as a community, are highly sensitive to weather forecasts, as their agronomic decisions revolve around daily temperatures, rainfall patterns, and wind speeds. Farmers used to be able to observe cloud patterns, behaviour of birds and animals, wind direction, and other natural occurrences to make accurate predictions about the weather. Before technology took over, farmers’ wealth of experience in agronomy helped them make spot-on weather forecasts.

Index-based Insurance and Climate Information in Sri Lanka: Prospects for Community-based Rainfall Stations

Kanchana Wickramasinghe

Climate insurance for farmers has been a hot topic recently owing to recurring floods and droughts in agricultural districts in Sri Lanka. In these instances, interventions are necessary to help farmers adapt to weather and climate changes, using effective risk management strategies. Global experience has shown that insurance serves as an important risk management tool in this regard. However, an IPS study indicated that, in Sri Lanka, climate insurance is not yet considered a popular risk management strategy adopted by farmers due to issues in supply and demand. 

Supply-side issues are related to the indemnity-based crop insurance products offered in Sri Lanka. The study proposed to shift to index-based insurance, to eliminate problems of traditional indemnity-based crop insurance. It further identified the lack of climate data as a main barrier in implementing index-based insurance in Sri Lanka.  

Climate Information Needs of Farmers: What is in Demand?

Anita Perera and Geethika Maddumage

As a developing country that still depends heavily on agriculture for rural livelihoods, Sri Lanka faces many challenges due to climatic changes. Without reliable climate-related information, farmers are unable to make accurate farming decisions. In the past, farmers were able to rely on their traditional knowledge to make precise weather predictions. They were well-versed on local weather patterns and the specific climatic requirements for crops, thanks to long-term experience and knowledge passed through generations. 

Sri Lankan Farmers’ Traditional Knowledge and Climate Change Predictions

Dilani Hirimuthugodage

“If eagles and grey hornbills are flying above their normal height in the sky, it signals that rain is expected soon; if seagulls are flying close to the ground, it suggests that there will be heavy rainfall. However, these patterns have now changed because of the development activities in the Lunugamwehera Tank, Bundala Salt Corporation, etc.” said Mr. Bandara, a 60 year old paddy farmer from Bundala, in Hambantota District. He attended the Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) programme of a research study conducted by the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS), and other partner institutes.

Climate Smart Agriculture: Key to Ensuring Food Security and Rural Livelihood in Sri Lanka

By Manoj Thibbotuwawa

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s report on "Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" says; “Climate change without adaptation could potentially affect the farm livelihood and all aspects of food security including food access, utilization, and price stability.”